Table 1 Factors associated with prediction of EGVB

Age (years)

−0.011

0.989 (0.968–1.010)

0.306

Male gender

0.618

1.855 (1.051–3.272)

0.033

Liver disease etiology

 Smoking

0.573

1.774 (1.121–2.807)

0.014

 Drinking

0.900

2.461 (1.535–3.944)

<  0.001

 Decompensation

0.998

2.713 (1.429–5.152)

0.002

 Ascites

0.897

2.452 (1.440–4.176)

0.001

 Hepatic encephalopathy

0.327

1.387 (0.506–3.800)

0.525

 Bacterial infection

−0.100

0.905 (0.497–1.648)

0.744

Location of varices at index gastroscopy

 Gastric varices only

Reference

 Esophageal varices only

−0.714

0.489 (0.067–3.602)

0.483

 Esophageal and gastric

0.910

2.485 (1.542–4.004)

<  0.001

Size of varices

 Small

Reference

 Medium

1.152

3.165 (1.629–6.151)

0.001

 Large

1.699

5.469 (2.950–10.139)

<  0.001

 Red wale marks

1.469

4.346 (2.691–7.017)

<  0.001

Laboratory data

 ALT (U/L)

−0.004

0.996 (0.992–1.000)

0.005

 AST (U/L)

−0.003

0.997 (0.993–1.001)

0.093

 TBIL (μmol/L)

−0.002

0.998 (0.994–1.003)

0.487

 GGT (U/L)

0.001

1.001 (1.000–1.002)

0.006

 ALP (U/L)

−0.001

0.999 (0.995–1.002)

0.548

 ALB (g/L)

−0.034

0.967 (0.929–1.005)

0.091

 WBC (×  10 ⁹ /L)

0.004

1.004 (0.897–1.125)

0.938

 RBC (×  10 ¹² /L)

−0.425

0.654 (0.477–0.898)

0.009

 PLT (× 10 ⁹ /L)

−0.002

0.998 (0.992–1.003)

0.414

 NLR

0.082

1.086 (1.018–1.158)

0.013

 HCT (%)

−0.053

0.948 (0.919–0.978)

0.001

 K (mmol/L)

−0.284

0.752 (0.441–1.283)

0.296

 NA (mmol/L)

−0.006

0.994 (0.936–1.056)

0.848

 BUN (mmol/L)

−0.072

0.930 (0.824–1.050)

0.243

 CREA (μmol/L)

−0.005

0.995 (0.983–1.007)

0.381

 GLU (mmol/L)

−0.091

0.913 (0.814–1.024)

0.119

 PT (s)

0.014

1.014 (0.939–1.095)

0.721

 PTA (%)

−0.009

0.991 (0.977–1.004)

0.172

 Spleen thickness (mm)

0.046

1.048 (1.027–1.068)

<  0.001

 Portal vein diameter (mm)

0.113

1.120 (0.987–1.270)

0.079

Child-Pugh grade‡

 A

Reference

 B

−0.190

0.827 (0.500–1.369)

0.827

 C

−0.085

0.919 (0.467–1.807)

0.919

 MELD ^a

−0.018

0.982 (0.935–1.032)

0.481